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  • Strength in Consumer Credit - WA#41
    Strength in Consumer Credit - WA#41

    Bank statements at September 30

  • The available forecasts all agree that the economy loses momentum. The IMF just reduced its prevision of Ecuador GDP growth to 1.1% in 2018 and .7% in 2019 (blue curve). ECLAC estimate, somewhat dated, is a deceleration of the economy in 2018 to 1.5% (green curve). (WA#41)

  • Domestic demand expanded 3.3% T-4 in the second quarter, picking up steam from the second, but lower than the expansion of the three previous quarters. Global demand for goods and services (domestic demand + exports) grew somewhat less, 2.6% T-4, as exports barely rose .2%. Global supply of goods in the Ecuadoran market (GDP + imports) was pushed up by high import expansion (8.6%). By definition, global supply and demand are identical. (WA#40)

Welcome to Grupo Spurrier

Grupo Spurrier is the leading company in the development of key solutions and services for business success; it specializes in monitoring the economy and politics of Ecuador, as well as on economic research, market research, consulting and corporate training, models and business plans development, investment plans, and market power law consulting.

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Weekly Analysis Briefs

  • 40.- SLOW GROWTH AHEAD

    Second quarter GDP data reveals that quarterly growth (comparing with first quarter) was 75% due to an increase in government services. This stimulated domestic demand, which in turn was satisfied to a large extent in increased imports, not on domestic production. The above result is what is to be expected by the policy of incurring in stimulati...

  • 39.- CROSS WINDS

    Ecuador faces crosswinds in the global economy. On the positive side, the price of oil and some agricultural raw materials have recovered. However, there are risks that could offset these benefits: the persistent strength of the dollar and the increase in the US referential interest rate that would accelerate the reversal of capital flows from emer...

  • 38.- NEW LICENSING ROUND

    The Hydrocarbons Secretariat just called a tender for small oil blocs, the first of a production-sharing modality, as the regulations for such contracts was redrawn and the windfall profits tax repealed. A second tender is to be called later in the year. Previously Petroamazonas carried out two rounds for specific services contracts for small bl...