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  • Now Comes the Hard Part - WA#04
    Now Comes the Hard Part - WA#04

    January indicators overview

  • Country risk closed December at 826 base points (8.26 percentage points), up 86 base points from the November closing. As of January 15, it fell 132 points to 694. (WA#04)

  • Social security faces a challenge: the number of people covered grows faster than the number of contributors. By 2018, each contributor had to finance the coverage of 2.56 people (in 2015 it was 2.40). The cause: demographic reasons such as birth rate fall and longer life expectancy. Also, last decade’s policy of coverageexpansion. (WA#03)

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Grupo Spurrier is the leading company in the development of key solutions and services for business success; it specializes in monitoring the economy and politics of Ecuador, as well as on economic research, market research, consulting and corporate training, models and business plans development, investment plans, and market power law consulting.

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Weekly Analysis Briefs

  • 04.- NOW COMES THE HARD PART

    The authorities went down to the wire, but managed to cover their fiscal needs, although bulking arrears in $1.35 bn. They recurred to a tax remission, cut investment, enjoyed a surge in oil prices, and managed to reduce the deficit. Page closed. Open new page. The easy things done, they have an uphill battle to further reduce the deficit in 201...

  • 03.- WILL EMPLOYERS? CONTRIBUTION INCREASE?

    Social security is going through a delicate situation that has caused that, since 2016, it must dip into its savings to finance operations. In three years, it has used up $5.41 bn of its savings.  The government is preparing the ground for a social security reform that would allow restoring its sustainability.   The BIESS seeks businesses that m...

  • 2.- SCANT GROWTH AHEAD

    This year there would be minimal economic growth, according to official forecasts. The IMF and Eclac estimate GDP growth of under 1%. BCE estimates growth at 1.4%, but heavily dependent on the development of the Ishpingo oilfield. Oil aside, BCE estimates 2019 growth at .6% The prevision is that household consumption and capital formation are bo...